August Holmgren vs Justin Boulais — Granby Quarter-final
Holmgren A.
August Holmgren faces Justin Boulais in the Granby quarter-final on hard. August Holmgren holds the paper edge — ranked #192, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Holmgren A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: August Holmgren comes in with 1 days of rest and 66 games in 14d, vs Justin Boulais's 2 and 21.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, August Holmgren has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 46 vs 8).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHolmgren A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 66 games (7d) · Boulais J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.