Clara Tauson vs Miriana Tona — Athens Round of 16

Athens · WTA · Round of 16

DEN

Clara Tauson

#30WTA

1802ELO

1775Hard ELO

$792kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWWLLLLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · 12:00

hard

ITA

Miriana Tona

#384WTA

1275ELO

1276Hard ELO

31 yrs

Last 10

WLWLLLWLLW

Tauson C.

Tona M.

Clara Tauson faces Miriana Tona in the Athens round of 16 on hard. Clara Tauson holds the paper edge — ranked #30, a roughly 500-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC

Tauson C.90%

Tona M.10%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tauson C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Clara Tauson 18 games in 14 days, Miriana Tona 30.
Last match: Clara Tauson edged Nao Hibino in two tight sets (7–5 6–4).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tauson C.

7.6

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Tona M.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

10.0+500 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

0.0Hard Elo 1276

9.2Overall Elo 1802

ELO gap

0.8Overall Elo 1275

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.06 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

6.87 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tauson C.Stable

Tona M.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season

Tauson C.Tona M.

1st serve in·Even

63%

67%

1st serve points won·Clear edge

72%

58%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

40%

46%

Service points won·Slight edge

60%

54%

Return points won·Even

42%

45%

Break points saved·Slight edge

57%

48%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.1

1.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

3.1

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tauson C.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Tona M.

Tona M.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Serve advantage — Tauson C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Tauson C.Tona M.

Serve

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Return

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Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Tauson C.Tona M.

Freshness·Clear edge

Tauson C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tona M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

35°CClear

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 26%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.