Polona Hercog vs Jeline VandrommeKitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#228WTA
1590ELO
1574Clay ELO
35 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWWLWWL
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
#129WTA
1646ELO
1491Clay ELO
18 yrs
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWL
Hercog P.
vs
Vandromme J.

Polona Hercog faces Jeline Vandromme in the Kitzbuhel round of 16 on clay. Jeline Vandromme holds the paper edge — ranked #129.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC
Hercog P.43%
Vandromme J.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+83 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1491
3.7Overall Elo 1590
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1646
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Hercog P.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
48%
48%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Hercog P.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Vandromme J.

Vandromme J.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Hercog P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
61

Hercog P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Vandromme J.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 99 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.