Maria Lourdes Carle vs Barbora PalicovaKitzbuhel Round of 16

Kitzbuhel · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#218WTA
1484ELO
1461Clay ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 16 July 2026 ·
clay
#322WTA
1380ELO
1374Clay ELO
22 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLWLW
Lourdes Carle M.
0-6 6-1 6-3
Palicova B.
Lourdes Carle M.
0662
Palicova B.
6131

Maria Lourdes Carle defeated Barbora Palicova in the Round of 16 at Kitzbuhel, coming back from a set down to win 0-6, 6-1, 6-3. The match saw Carle commit 6 double faults and convert 46% of break points, while Palicova had 3 double faults and converted 56% of break points. Carle secured 6 service breaks to Palicova's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Break points saved·Even
49%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.7
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Lourdes Carle M.79%
Palicova B.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lourdes Carle M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+88 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1374
6.3Overall Elo 1484
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1380
5.7Leads 2–1 on clay
H2H
4.3Trails 1–2 on clay
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
66
62

Lourdes Carle M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Palicova B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw