Alevtina Ibragimova vs Paula Badosa — Iasi Round of 16
Ibragimova A.
Alevtina Ibragimova faces Paula Badosa in the Iasi round of 16 on clay. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #115, a roughly 210-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Badosa P. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Alevtina Ibragimova comes in with 1 days of rest and 33 games in 14d, vs Paula Badosa's 3 and 129.
- Last match: Paula Badosa dropped just 4 games past Anhelina Kalinina.
- Win streak: Both arrive in form — Alevtina Ibragimova on a 3-match run, Paula Badosa on 6.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadIbragimova A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.