Elizara Yaneva vs Sofya LansereRome Round of 16

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#196WTA
1549ELO
1497Clay ELO
19 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLLLL
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#276WTA
1394ELO
1305Clay ELO
25 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWWLLWL
Yaneva E.
vs
Lansere S.

Elizara Yaneva faces Sofya Lansere in the Rome round of 16 on clay. Elizara Yaneva holds the paper edge — ranked #196, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC
Yaneva E.78%
Lansere S.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Yaneva E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+192 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Clay Elo 1305
6.6Overall Elo 1549
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1394
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Yaneva E.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

28 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
43%
Service points won·Even
56%
53%
Return points won·Even
47%
50%
Break points saved·Even
55%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
0.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Yaneva E.serving35% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Lansere S.

Lansere S.serving35% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Yaneva E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Yaneva E.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.