Francesca Jones vs Federica Urgesi — Rome Round of 16
Jones F.
Francesca Jones faces Federica Urgesi in the Rome round of 16 on clay. Francesca Jones is the paper favourite — ranked #123, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Federica Urgesi arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Francesca Jones's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Jones F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Francesca Jones dropped the opening set before beating Dalila Spiteri 1–6 6–1 6–0.
- Last match: Federica Urgesi handed Yelyzaveta Kotliar a second-set bagel in a 6–3 6–0 win.
- Surface form: Francesca Jones 3 of 6, Federica Urgesi 5 of 6 on clay recently — Federica Urgesi the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.