Lola Radivojevic vs Deborah ChiesaRome Round of 16

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#156WTA
1555ELO
1544Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10
WLWLLWLWLW
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
#354WTA
1449ELO
1460Clay ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWWLW
Radivojevic L.
vs
Chiesa D.

Lola Radivojevic faces Deborah Chiesa in the Rome round of 16 on clay. Lola Radivojevic holds the paper edge — ranked #156, a roughly 80-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Radivojevic L.65%
Chiesa D.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Radivojevic L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+85 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1460
5.6Overall Elo 1555
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1449
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Radivojevic L.serving47% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Chiesa D.

Chiesa D.serving49% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Radivojevic L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Radivojevic L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.