Darya Astakhova vs Noma Noha Akugue — Rome Round of 16
Astakhova D.
Darya Astakhova faces Noma Noha Akugue in the Rome round of 16 on clay. Noma Noha Akugue is the paper favourite — ranked #149, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Darya Astakhova arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 7 on clay to Noma Noha Akugue's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Noha Akugue N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Darya Astakhova dropped just 4 games past Kajsa Rinaldo Persson.
- Surface form: Darya Astakhova 4 of 7, Noma Noha Akugue 3 of 7 on clay recently — Darya Astakhova the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Noma Noha Akugue carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNoha Akugue N.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.