Vadym Ursu vs Dominik Palan — Pozoblanco Round of 32

Pozoblanco · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
UKR
Vadym Ursu
#415ATP
1223ELO
1196Hard ELO
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLWWLLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
hard
CZE
Dominik Palan
#498ATP
1214ELO
1201Hard ELO
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLLLLW
Ursu V.
vs
Palan D.

Vadym Ursu faces Dominik Palan in the Pozoblanco round of 32 on hard. Vadym Ursu holds the paper edge — ranked #415. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC
Ursu V.45%
Palan D.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Vadym Ursu 0 games in 14 days, Dominik Palan 14.
  • Surface form: Both 2 of 7 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ursu V.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Palan D.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1196
Surface ELO
5.1+6 Hard Elo edge
5.1Overall Elo 1223
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1214
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.24 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Ursu V.Slidingearly
Palan D.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

6 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
Ursu V.Palan D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
64%
76%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
41%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
33%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
68%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.5
11.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.0
5.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ursu V.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Palan D.

Palan D.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ursu V.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Ursu V.Palan D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
0
7
Break points saved·Dominant
8
73
Break points won·Clear edge
18
0
Deciding sets·Clear edge
27
8
Tiebreaks·
—
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Ursu V.Palan D.
Freshness·Slight edge
100
91

Ursu V.: 15 days rest · Palan D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°COvercast
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 20%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.