Yi Zhou vs Stefan KozlovPozoblanco Round of 32

Pozoblanco · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#236ATP
1456ELO
1445Hard ELO
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
hard
#296ATP
1429ELO
1408Hard ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWWLW
Zhou Y.
vs
Kozlov S.

Yi Zhou faces Stefan Kozlov in the Pozoblanco round of 32 on hard. Yi Zhou holds the paper edge — ranked #236, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC
Zhou Y.62%
Kozlov S.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Zhou Y. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+36 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1408
5.3Overall Elo 1456
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1429
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Jet lag
7.56h east, 4d ago
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Zhou Y.Stable
Kozlov S.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.0
2.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zhou Y.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kozlov S.

Kozlov S.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Zhou Y.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
13
36
Break points saved·Dominant
87
49
Break points won·Slight edge
13
20
Deciding sets·Dominant
1
85
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
14
30

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
64

Zhou Y.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d) · Kozlov S.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
33°CPartly cloudy
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 19%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.