Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Bastad Round of 32
Ofner S.
Sebastian Ofner faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad round of 32 on clay. Thiago Agustin Tirante is the paper favourite — ranked #55, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage — but Sebastian Ofner arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Thiago Agustin Tirante's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Tirante T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Sebastian Ofner comes in with 3 days of rest and 125 games in 14d, vs Thiago Agustin Tirante's 12 and 31.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Sebastian Ofner has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 70 vs 44).
- Stage: Sebastian Ofner defends last year's round of 32.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadOfner S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Tirante T.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.