Francesco Passaro vs Martin Krumich

Bastad · ATP · Qualifying Final

ITA4

Francesco Passaro

#182ATP

1592ELO

1578Clay ELO

$88kYTD

$1.5MCAREER

25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWLWLWLLL

0 — 2

Sets

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 11:10

clay

COURT 1 · 1st on

CZEQ

Martin Krumich

#278ATP

1459ELO

1423Clay ELO

23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWLWWLWLW

Passaro F.

4-6 3-6

Krumich M.

Passaro F.

430

Krumich M.

662

Martin Krumich dropped just seven games in a straight-sets win over Francesco Passaro in the Bastad qualifying final.

Key context

Set 1, game 7: Francesco Passaro saved three break points to hold serve.
Set 2, game 7: Martin Krumich broke serve after a 21-point game with eight deuces.
Set 2, game 7: A 21-point game with eight deuces went Martin Krumich's way.
Pressure points: Francesco Passaro converted 0 of 1 break points; Martin Krumich converted 3 of 16 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Passaro F.

Krumich M.

Break points won

0/1

3/16

Break points saved

13/16

1/1

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Passaro F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Krumich M.

Krumich M.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Passaro F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Passaro F.Krumich M.

1st serve in·Even

64%

62%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

50%

Service points won·Even

64%

63%

Return points won·Even

39%

40%

Break points saved·Slight edge

58%

63%

Aces / match·Slight edge

6.1

4.9

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.8

2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Passaro F.Krumich M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:20 UTC

Passaro F.71%

Krumich M.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Passaro F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Passaro F.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Krumich M.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.9+155 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.1Clay Elo 1423

6.7Overall Elo 1592

ELO gap

3.3Overall Elo 1459

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.64 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.