Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Federica UrgesiRome Round of 32

Rome · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#451WTA
1244ELO
1222Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 4th on
#287WTA
1546ELO
1532Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWW
Kotliar Y.
3-6 0-6
Urgesi F.
Kotliar Y.
300
Urgesi F.
662

Federica Urgesi reeled off 11 straight games on the way to a 6-3 6-0 win over Yelyzaveta Kotliar in the Rome round of 32.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 2: Federica Urgesi broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Yelyzaveta Kotliar converted 2 of 4 break points; Federica Urgesi converted 7 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Kotliar Y.
Urgesi F.
Break points won
2/4
7/8
Break points saved
1/8
2/4

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kotliar Y.serving35% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Urgesi F.

Urgesi F.serving35% hold

wins 44% of points on serve vs Kotliar Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
48%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
51%
48%
Break points saved·Even
51%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
0.1
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC
Kotliar Y.11%
Urgesi F.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Urgesi F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.1Clay Elo 1222
Surface ELO
8.9+310 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1244
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1546
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
65

Kotliar Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
30°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 61%