Colton Smith vs Andre Ilagan — Lincoln Round of 32
Smith C.Colton Smith faces Andre Ilagan in the Lincoln round of 32 on hard. Colton Smith holds the paper edge — ranked #186, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Colton Smith comes in with 16 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Andre Ilagan's 2 and 123.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Colton Smith has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 62 vs 37).
- Surface form: Both 3 of 5 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.