Polina Iatcenko vs Vera Zvonareva — Istanbul 2

Istanbul 2 · CHALLENGER
RUS
Polina Iatcenko
#157WTA
1605ELO
1567Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
LWWLLLWWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
hard
Vera Zvonareva
RUS
Vera Zvonareva
1693ELO
1659Hard ELO
41 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLW
Iatcenko P.
vs
Zvonareva V.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:21 UTC
Iatcenko P.17%
Zvonareva V.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Zvonareva V. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Iatcenko P.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Zvonareva V.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1567
Surface ELO
6.2+93 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1605
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1693
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Iatcenko P.Rising
Zvonareva V.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
Iatcenko P.Zvonareva V.
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
46%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Iatcenko P.serving54% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Zvonareva V.

Zvonareva V.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Iatcenko P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Iatcenko P.Zvonareva V.
Freshness·
100
—

Iatcenko P.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying