Fajing Sun vs Arthur Gea — Granby Round of 32

Granby · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
CHN
Fajing Sun
#270ATP
1496ELO
1473Hard ELO
$32kYTD
$490kCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
hard
FRA
Arthur Gea
#136ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$352kYTD
$604kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWLWL
Sun F.
vs
Gea A.

Fajing Sun faces Arthur Gea in the Granby round of 32 on hard. Arthur Gea holds the paper edge — ranked #136, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Sun F.27%
Gea A.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Gea A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Fajing Sun comes in with 6 days of rest and 34 games in 14d, vs Arthur Gea's 1 and 72.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Arthur Gea has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 38 vs 5).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sun F.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Gea A.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1473
Surface ELO
6.7+136 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1496
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1596
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.59 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sun F.Sliding
Gea A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Sun F.Gea A.
1st serve in·Even
59%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
66%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
5.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sun F.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Gea A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Sun F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sun F.Gea A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
5
38
Break points saved·Clear edge
65
81
Break points won·Clear edge
10
27
Deciding sets·Clear edge
8
26
Tiebreaks·Dominant
4
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sun F.Gea A.
Freshness·Dominant
92
62

Sun F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Gea A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.