Kaichi Uchida vs Alexis Galarneau — Granby Round of 32
Uchida K.
Kaichi Uchida faces Alexis Galarneau in the Granby round of 32 on hard. Alexis Galarneau holds the paper edge — ranked #179, a roughly 220-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Galarneau A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Kaichi Uchida 39 games in 14 days, Alexis Galarneau 81.
- Under pressure: Alexis Galarneau has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 28 vs Kaichi Uchida's 8).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadUchida K.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Galarneau A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.