Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Granby Round of 32
Shimizu Y.Yuta Shimizu faces Jay Dylan Hara Friend in the Granby round of 32 on hard. Jay Dylan Hara Friend holds the paper edge — a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Friend J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Yuta Shimizu 75 games in 14 days, Jay Dylan Hara Friend 122.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadShimizu Y.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Friend J.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.