Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate — Granby Round of 32
Cassone M.
Murphy Cassone faces Tristan Schoolkate in the Granby round of 32 on hard. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #149, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Schoolkate T. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Murphy Cassone 26 games in 14 days, Tristan Schoolkate 66.
- Head-to-head: Tristan Schoolkate leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Delray Beach 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on hard
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadCassone M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Schoolkate T.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Q1 | hard | Tristan Schoolkate | 6-4 7-6(5) |