Justin Boulais vs Zhizhen Zhang — Granby Round of 32
Boulais J.
Justin Boulais faces Zhizhen Zhang in the Granby round of 32 on hard. Zhizhen Zhang holds the paper edge — ranked #161, a roughly 320-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Zhang Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Justin Boulais comes in with 11 days of rest and 102 games in 14d, vs Zhizhen Zhang's 19 and 0.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Zhizhen Zhang has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 56 vs 5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on hard
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadBoulais J.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Zhang Z.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.