Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · ATP · Round of 32

POR

Nuno Borges

#48ATP

1769ELO

1726Clay ELO

$811kYTD

$5.3MCAREER

29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWWLLWL

—

Sets

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

FRA

Moise Kouame

#215ATP

1568ELO

1426Clay ELO

17 yrs · 190 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWLLLLLL

Borges N.

Kouame M.

Nuno Borges faces Moise Kouame in the Bastad round of 32 on clay. Nuno Borges holds the paper edge — ranked #48, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 300-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Borges N.75%

Kouame M.25%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Borges N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Nuno Borges 69 games in 14 days, Moise Kouame 20.
Form trend: Nuno Borges's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Moise Kouame's has cooled.
Stage: Nuno Borges defends last year's round of 16.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Borges N.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Kouame M.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

8.7+300 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.3Clay Elo 1426

7.5Overall Elo 1769

ELO gap

2.5Overall Elo 1568

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.05 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

2.42 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

3.0Grass → Clay

Surface transition

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Borges N.Rising

Kouame M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Borges N.Kouame M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

60%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

73%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

49%

Service points won·Slight edge

65%

60%

Return points won·Even

34%

38%

Break points saved·Even

62%

66%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.3

4.0

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.2

4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Borges N.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kouame M.

Kouame M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Borges N.Kouame M.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Borges N.Kouame M.

Freshness·Even

Borges N.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Kouame M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

20°COvercast

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.