Darwin Blanch vs Bernard Tomic — Lincoln Round of 32
Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
hard
#204ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLLWLLL
Blanch D.vs
Tomic B.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTCBlanch D.76%
Tomic B.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Blanch D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.5+42 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO4.5Hard Elo 1441
6.0Overall Elo 1551
ELO gap4.0Overall Elo 1474
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form3.74 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
28 vs 22 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.4
4.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.4
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Blanch D.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.