Daniel Altmaier vs Hugo Gaston — Bastad Round of 32

Bastad · ATP · Round of 32

GER

Daniel Altmaier

#61ATP

1734ELO

1693Clay ELO

$574kYTD

$5.4MCAREER

27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

FRA

Hugo Gaston

#118ATP

1622ELO

1566Clay ELO

$355kYTD

$4.0MCAREER

25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

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Altmaier D.

Gaston H.

Daniel Altmaier faces Hugo Gaston in the Bastad round of 32 on clay. Daniel Altmaier is the paper favourite — ranked #61, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage — but Hugo Gaston rides a 4-match win streak. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Hugo Gaston ahead 1–0 on clay.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC

Altmaier D.67%

Gaston H.33%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Altmaier D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Daniel Altmaier comes in with 10 days of rest and 39 games in 14d, vs Hugo Gaston's 1 and 90.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 0–1 on clay. Last met at Metz 2025.
Win streak: Hugo Gaston arrives on a 4-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Altmaier D.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Gaston H.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.6+127 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.4Clay Elo 1566

6.4Overall Elo 1734

ELO gap

3.6Overall Elo 1622

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

4.04 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.86 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3.0Grass → Clay

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Altmaier D.Stable

Gaston H.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season

Altmaier D.Gaston H.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

53%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

48%

Service points won·Even

60%

59%

Return points won·Even

36%

40%

Break points saved·Even

55%

Aces / match·Clear edge

5.5

2.6

Double faults / match·Even

2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Altmaier D.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Gaston H.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Altmaier D.

Serve advantage — Gaston H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Altmaier D.Gaston H.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

Altmaier D.Gaston H.

Serve

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Return

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Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Altmaier D.Gaston H.

Freshness·Dominant

Altmaier D.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

20°COvercast

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 89%

Head to head

1–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2025-11-02	Metz	R16	hard	Daniel Altmaier	4-6 6-0 0-0 RET
2024-07-22	Kitzbuhel	R32	clay	Hugo Gaston	6-4 6-7(5) 6-4