Lukas Neumayer vs Marko TopoUmag Qualifying Final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Final
#162ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$133kYTD
$573kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 4 · 1st on
#374ATP
1463ELO
1399Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLLLLW
Neumayer L.
6-7 5-7
Topo M.
Neumayer L.
6750
Topo M.
7972

Marko Topo defeated Lukas Neumayer 7-6 7-5 in the Umag qualifying final on clay.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 1: A 13-point game with four deuces went Marko Topo's way.
  • Pressure points: Lukas Neumayer converted 5 of 11 break points; Marko Topo converted 6 of 14 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Neumayer L.
Topo M.
Break points won
5/11
6/14
Break points saved
8/14
6/11

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Neumayer L.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Topo M.

Topo M.serving59% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Neumayer L.

Serve advantage — Neumayer L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
40
28
Break points saved·Clear edge
71
87
Break points won·Dominant
62
4
Deciding sets·Even
11
12
Tiebreaks·Even
85
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Neumayer L.80%
Topo M.20%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Neumayer L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.5+200 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Clay Elo 1399
7.0Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1463
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.44 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
51
75

Neumayer L.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 123 games (7d) · Topo M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 63%