Claire Liu vs Maria Sara Popa — Iasi Qualifying Semi-final

Iasi · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
Claire Liu
USA
Claire Liu
#146WTA
1669ELO
1623Clay ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWWWLLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 5 · 4th on
ROU
Maria Sara Popa
#461WTA
1412ELO
1395Clay ELO
20 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWLL
Liu C.
vs
Popa M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Liu C.79%
Popa M.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Liu C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Liu C.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Popa M.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.9+228 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Clay Elo 1395
8.4Overall Elo 1669
ELO gap
1.6Overall Elo 1412
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Liu C.Stable
Popa M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Liu C.Popa M.
1st serve in·Even
69%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Even
48%
48%
Break points saved·Even
54%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Liu C.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Popa M.

Popa M.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Liu C.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Liu C.Popa M.
Freshness·Slight edge
80
86

Liu C.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Popa M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on COURT 5 · not before Followed by · 3 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Garcia Perez G. v Prisacariu A.
  2. 2Herea C. v Kazionova E.
  3. 3Fetecau I. v Pieri T.
  4. 4Liu C. v Popa M.This match
  5. 5Lepchenko V. v Burcescu M.

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.