Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski

Bastad · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final

ITA4

Francesco Passaro

#182ATP

1592ELO

1578Clay ELO

$88kYTD

$1.5MCAREER

25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLWLWLLL

2 — 1

Sets

Sunday, 12 July 2026 · 12:25

clay

COURT 3 · 2nd on

POL

Maks Kasnikowski

#252ATP

1400ELO

1418Clay ELO

23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWLWL

Passaro F.

6-1 3-6 6-3

Kasnikowski M.

Passaro F.

6362

Kasnikowski M.

1631

Francesco Passaro reeled off five straight games on the way to a 6-1 3-6 6-3 win over Maks Kasnikowski in the Bastad qualifying semi-final.

Key context

Set 1, game 4: Francesco Passaro broke serve.
Set 3, game 4: Francesco Passaro broke serve.
Pressure points: Francesco Passaro converted 3 of 5 break points; Maks Kasnikowski converted 1 of 3 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Passaro F.

Kasnikowski M.

Break points won

3/5

1/3

Break points saved

2/3

2/5

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Passaro F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Kasnikowski M.

Kasnikowski M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Passaro F.

Serve advantage — Kasnikowski M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Passaro F.Kasnikowski M.

1st serve in·Even

64%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

72%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

55%

Service points won·Even

64%

65%

Return points won·Even

39%

40%

Break points saved·Even

58%

56%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.1

3.8

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.8

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Passaro F.Kasnikowski M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:20 UTC

Passaro F.76%

Kasnikowski M.24%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Passaro F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Passaro F.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Kasnikowski M.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.0+161 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.0Clay Elo 1418

7.4Overall Elo 1592

ELO gap

2.6Overall Elo 1400

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

4.04 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.06 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.