Andrea Guerrieri vs Federico Agustin GomezUmag Qualifying Final

Umag · ATP · Qualifying Final
#227ATP
1545ELO
1510Clay ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 2 · 1st on
#212ATP
1445ELO
1410Clay ELO
$29kYTD
$680kCAREER
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLLLWL
Guerrieri A.
4-6 4-6
Gomez F.
Guerrieri A.
440
Gomez F.
662

A decisive break in the first set settled it as Federico Agustin Gomez got past Andrea Guerrieri 6-4 6-4 in the Umag qualifying final.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 2: Federico Agustin Gomez saved three break points to hold serve.
  • Set 1, game 8: A 15-point game with five deuces went Federico Agustin Gomez's way.
  • Pressure points: Andrea Guerrieri converted 1 of 11 break points; Federico Agustin Gomez converted 3 of 7 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Guerrieri A.
Gomez F.
Break points won
1/11
3/7
Break points saved
4/7
10/11

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Guerrieri A.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Gomez F.

Gomez F.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Guerrieri A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
63%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
4.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
36
Break points saved·Even
80
82
Break points won·Clear edge
40
18
Deciding sets·Clear edge
84
62
Tiebreaks·
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Guerrieri A.70%
Gomez F.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Guerrieri A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.2+100 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Clay Elo 1410
6.2Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1445
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
68
52

Guerrieri A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 77 games (7d) · Gomez F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 64%