Matej Dodig vs Hugo Dellien — Trieste Final
BOL
Dodig M.
Matej Dodig faces Hugo Dellien in the Trieste final on clay. Hugo Dellien is the paper favourite — ranked #162, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage — but Matej Dodig arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Hugo Dellien's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Dellien H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Hugo Dellien has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 59 vs Matej Dodig's 31).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Matej Dodig 70 games in 14 days, Hugo Dellien 92.
- Last match: Hugo Dellien dropped the opening set before beating Henry Bernet 4–6 7–6 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDodig M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Dellien H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Roland Garros | SF | clay | Hugo Dellien | 1-6 4-6 |