Valentin Royer vs Titouan DroguetIasi Semi-final

Iasi · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#75ATP
1641ELO
1606Clay ELO
$521kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
#116ATP
1717ELO
1681Clay ELO
$273kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Royer V.
vs
Droguet T.

Valentin Royer faces Titouan Droguet in the Iasi semi-final on clay. Valentin Royer holds the paper edge — ranked #75, leading the head-to-head 2–1.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC
Royer V.32%
Droguet T.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Droguet T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.1Clay Elo 1606
Surface ELO
5.9+75 Clay Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1641
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1717
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.76 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Royer V.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
36%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.4
9.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Royer V.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Droguet T.

Droguet T.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Royer V.

Serve advantage — Droguet T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
58
64
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
88
Break points won·Clear edge
30
17
Deciding sets·Clear edge
73
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
62
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
74

Royer V.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Droguet T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-01Shanghai MastersQ1hardValentin Royer6-1 6-2
2025-06-30WimbledonQ3grassValentin Royer6-3 6-4 6-2
2025-01-27MontpellierQ1hardTitouan Droguet4-6 6-3 7-6(4)