Matej Dodig vs Henri Squire — Trieste Semi-final

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
CRO
Matej Dodig
#208ATP
1461ELO
1430Clay ELO
20 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
GER
Henri Squire
#235ATP
1511ELO
1490Clay ELO
25 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLLWW
Dodig M.
vs
Squire H.

Matej Dodig faces Henri Squire in the Trieste semi-final on clay. Matej Dodig holds the paper edge — ranked #208. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC
Dodig M.44%
Squire H.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dodig M.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Squire H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Clay Elo 1430
Surface ELO
5.8+61 Clay Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1461
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1511
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Dodig M.Stable
Squire H.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
Dodig M.Squire H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Even
57%
61%
Aces / match·Even
4.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.2
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dodig M.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Squire H.

Squire H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Dodig M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Dodig M.Squire H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
29
42
Break points saved·Slight edge
76
87
Break points won·Slight edge
3
12
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
68
Tiebreaks·Dominant
58
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Dodig M.Squire H.
Freshness·Slight edge
73
64

Dodig M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Squire H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 46%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Pellegrino A.[1]
Alcala Gurri M.
6-36-4
Brancaccio R.
Agamenone F.
7-633-66-3
Roncadelli F.
Ribecai M.
3-63-6
Nagal S.
Dodig M.[6]
2-64-6
Neumayer L.[3]
Nedic A.
6-46-3
Justo G.
Kravchenko G.
6-46-0
Squire H.
Guillen Meza A.
7-657-65
Fellin P.
Passaro F.[5]
3-61-3
Gomez F.[7]
Dalla Valle E.
6-44-66-4
Martin Manzano J.
Bernet H.
7-6104-63-6
Mrva M.
Villanueva G.
5-77-666-4
Bondioli F.
Schwaerzler J.[4]
3-66-37-5
Sanchez Izquierdo N.[8]
Dietrich D.
7-672-66-3
Prihodko O.
Barrena A.
4-64-6
Guerrieri A.
Roca Batalla O.
6-46-4
Caniato C.
Dellien H.[2]
3-65-7
Pellegrino A.[1]
Brancaccio R.
6-34-63-6
Ribecai M.
Dodig M.[6]
6-45-74-6
Neumayer L.[3]
Justo G.
6-45-76-4
Squire H.
Passaro F.[5]
5-76-47-5
Gomez F.[7]
Bernet H.
3-67-6103-6
Mrva M.
Bondioli F.
5-70-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.[8]
Barrena A.
6-46-3
Guerrieri A.
Dellien H.[2]
1-62-6
Brancaccio R.
Dodig M.[6]
6-751-6
Neumayer L.[3]
Squire H.
2-63-6
Bernet H.
Bondioli F.
2-6 1-0
Sanchez Izquierdo N.[8]
Dellien H.[2]
6-30-65-7
Dodig M.
Squire H.
—
Dellien H.
—