Simona Waltert vs Paula Badosa — Bastad Final
Waltert S.
Simona Waltert faces Paula Badosa in the Bastad final on clay. Simona Waltert holds the paper edge — ranked #90. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Simona Waltert 61 games in 14 days, Paula Badosa 90.
- Last match: Paula Badosa dropped just 3 games past Yulia Putintseva.
- Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadWaltert S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 46 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.