Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Hugo GastonBraunschweig Semi-final

Braunschweig · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
TENZER CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#97ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLLWW
Diaz Acosta F.
7-5 6-7 5-7
Gaston H.
Diaz Acosta F.
7651
Gaston H.
5772

Hugo Gaston defeated Facundo Diaz Acosta in the semifinals of the Braunschweig tournament on clay, 5-7, 7-6, 7-5. Gaston hit 4 aces and 4 double faults, while Diaz Acosta had 3 aces and 0 double faults. Gaston converted 45% of break points and broke Diaz Acosta's serve 5 times, compared to Diaz Acosta's 6 breaks.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-26US OpenR128hardFacundo Diaz Acosta6-1 6-4 6-2
2024-07-22KitzbuhelSFclayHugo Gaston6-1 2-0
2024-07-15HamburgR32clayHugo Gaston7-6 1-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
5
57
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
87
Break points won·Clear edge
16
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
72
Tiebreaks·Dominant
25
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.75%
Gaston H.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+102 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1566
5.7Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1622
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on clay
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
92

Diaz Acosta F.: 17 days rest · Gaston H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 32%

Draw