Johannus Monday vs Henry Searle — Nottingham 4 Quarter-final

Nottingham 4 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
GBR
Johannus Monday
#313ATP
1443ELO
1365Grass ELO
24 yrs · 198 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLLWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
grass
GBR
Henry Searle
#273ATP
1540ELO
1550Grass ELO
20 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWWL
Monday J.
vs
Searle H.

Johannus Monday faces Henry Searle in the Nottingham 4 quarter-final on grass. Henry Searle holds the paper edge — ranked #273, a roughly 190-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Monday J.31%
Searle H.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Searle H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Monday J.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Searle H.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.7Grass Elo 1365
Surface ELO
7.3+185 Grass Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1443
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1540
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Monday J.Stable
Searle H.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

14 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
Monday J.Searle H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
72%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.5
4.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Monday J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Searle H.

Searle H.serving92% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Monday J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Monday J.Searle H.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
79

Monday J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Searle H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 41%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Chidekh C.[1]
Janvier M.
4-66-46-3
Barroso Campos A.
Dalmasso G.
6-36-4
Ivanov I.
Visker N.
7-636-3
Maxted L.
Ghibaudo A.[6]
6-36-1
Zhou Y.[3]
Catry R.
6-46-3
De Jonge D.
Hudd E.
7-666-4
Brady P.
Herman L.
6-37-5
Weightman O.
Gray A.[5]
2-64-6
Monday J.[8]
Summers M.
6-36-3
Azkara A.
Bonding O.
7-666-3
Walters M.
Vales A.
2-61-6
Zahraj P.
Searle H.[4]
4-67-623-6
Romano F.[7]
Basing M.
6-03-66-75
W. K. Leong M.
Castelnuovo L.
6-743-6
Planinsek F.
Ribeiro Marcondes I.
7-646-3
Jansen W.
Gill F.[2]
4-67-654-6
Chidekh C.[1]
Barroso Campos A.
6-36-3
Ivanov I.
Maxted L.
6-36-4
Zhou Y.[3]
De Jonge D.
6-736-16-1
Brady P.
Gray A.[5]
1-61-6
Monday J.
Azkara A.
6-36-2
Vales A.
Searle H.
3-62-6
Basing M.
Castelnuovo L.
6-46-726-3
Planinsek F.
Gill F.
1-63-6
Chidekh C.[1]
Ivanov I.
Zhou Y.[3]
Gray A.[5]
Monday J.
Searle H.
Basing M.
Gill F.
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