Maks Kasnikowski vs Jerome Kym — Iasi Quarter-final
SUI
Kasnikowski M.
Maks Kasnikowski faces Jerome Kym in the Iasi quarter-final on clay. Jerome Kym is the paper favourite — ranked #196, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage — but Maks Kasnikowski arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on clay to Jerome Kym's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Kym J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jerome Kym has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 35 vs Maks Kasnikowski's 13).
- Last match: Maks Kasnikowski dropped the opening set before beating Pedro Martinez 4–6 6–3 7–5.
- Last match: Jerome Kym edged Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKasnikowski M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d) · Kym J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.