Yi Zhou vs Alastair Gray — Nottingham 4 Quarter-final

Nottingham 4 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

CHN

Yi Zhou

#240ATP

1456ELO

1459Grass ELO

21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWLWWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 10 July 2026 · 11:00

grass

GBR

Alastair Gray

#277ATP

1390ELO

1345Grass ELO

28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLWWLWLW

Zhou Y.

Gray A.

Yi Zhou faces Alastair Gray in the Nottingham 4 quarter-final on grass. Yi Zhou holds the paper edge — ranked #240, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Zhou Y.72%

Gray A.28%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zhou Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Yi Zhou comes in with 1 days of rest and 79 games in 14d, vs Alastair Gray's 2 and 18.
Last match: Yi Zhou dropped the opening set before beating Daniel De Jonge 6–7 6–1 6–1.
Last match: Alastair Gray dropped just 2 games past Patrick Brady.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Zhou Y.

7.3

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Gray A.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.4+114 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.6Grass Elo 1345

5.8Overall Elo 1456

ELO gap

4.2Overall Elo 1390

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.88 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.26 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Zhou Y.Stable

Gray A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season

Zhou Y.Gray A.

1st serve in·Even

63%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

74%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

50%

Service points won·Even

63%

65%

Return points won·Even

38%

37%

Break points saved·Even

63%

67%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.0

7.7

Double faults / match·Even

2.5

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Zhou Y.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Gray A.

Gray A.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Zhou Y.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Zhou Y.Gray A.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Zhou Y.Gray A.

Freshness·Slight edge

Zhou Y.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Gray A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

28°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.