Kimmer Coppejans vs Guy Den Ouden — Liege Quarter-final
Coppejans K.
Kimmer Coppejans faces Guy Den Ouden in the Liege quarter-final on clay. Kimmer Coppejans is the paper favourite — ranked #222, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage — but Guy Den Ouden arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Kimmer Coppejans's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Guy Den Ouden rising, Kimmer Coppejans cooling.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Kimmer Coppejans has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 44 vs 24).
- Last match: Guy Den Ouden dropped the opening set before beating Federico Coria 2–6 6–2 6–3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCoppejans K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Den Ouden G.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.