Raul Brancaccio vs Matej Dodig — Trieste Quarter-final
Brancaccio R.
Raul Brancaccio faces Matej Dodig in the Trieste quarter-final on clay. Matej Dodig is the paper favourite — ranked #208 — but Raul Brancaccio arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Matej Dodig's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Raul Brancaccio comes in with 2 days of rest and 62 games in 14d, vs Matej Dodig's 2 and 39.
- Last match: Raul Brancaccio dropped the opening set before beating Andrea Pellegrino 3–6 6–4 6–3.
- Last match: Matej Dodig dropped the opening set before beating Michele Ribecai 4–6 7–5 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBrancaccio R.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Dodig M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.