Anna Blinkova vs Aurora Zantedeschi — Contrexeville Quarter-final

Contrexeville · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Anna Blinkova
RUS
Anna Blinkova
#114WTA
1694ELO
1602Clay ELO
27 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLWWL
—
Sets
Friday, 10 July 2026 ·
clay
ITA
Aurora Zantedeschi
#364WTA
1302ELO
1301Clay ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWWWL
Blinkova A.
vs
Zantedeschi A.

Anna Blinkova faces Aurora Zantedeschi in the Contrexeville quarter-final on clay. Anna Blinkova is the paper favourite — ranked #114, a roughly 300-point clay Elo advantage — but Aurora Zantedeschi rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC
Blinkova A.82%
Zantedeschi A.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Blinkova A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Blinkova A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Zantedeschi A.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.8+301 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.2Clay Elo 1301
6.9Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1302
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.99 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Blinkova A.Rising
Zantedeschi A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
Blinkova A.Zantedeschi A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
57%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
51%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
50%
Break points saved·Even
51%
54%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Blinkova A.serving25% hold

wins 39% of points on serve vs Zantedeschi A.

Zantedeschi A.serving51% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Blinkova A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Blinkova A.Zantedeschi A.
Freshness·Dominant
64
92

Blinkova A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Zantedeschi A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 28%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Marcinko P.[1]
Burel C.
7-630-62-6
Avanesyan E.
Herrero Linana A.
2-64-6
Hesse A.
Palicova B.
6-46-2
Kabbaj Y.
Sherif M.[5]
4-62-6
Jones F.[4]
Rame A.
6-27-5
Monnot A.
Jeanjean L.
4-63-6
Tubello A.
Ren Y.
2-67-56-4
Uebelhoer C.
Salkova D.[8]
6-17-5
Grabher J.[7]
Masarova R.
6-756-45-7
Curmi F.
Dodin O.
6-46-3
Vandromme J.
Martynov D.
6-36-3
Kotliar Y.
Selekhmeteva O.[3]
4-64-6
Blinkova A.[6]
Andreeva E.
7-647-5
Carle M.
Pigossi L.
6-26-1
Fita Boluda A.
Pigato L.
1-66-16-77
Zantedeschi A.
Jacquemot E.
6-16-2
Burel C.
Herrero Linana A.
3-66-43-6
Hesse A.
Sherif M.[5]
3-65-7
Jones F.[4]
Jeanjean L.
6-1 4-6 5-5
Tubello A.
Uebelhoer C.
6-36-3
Masarova R.
Curmi F.
4-64-6
Vandromme J.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-06-1
Blinkova A.[6]
Carle M.
6-47-65
Pigato L.
Zantedeschi A.
2-65-5
Herrero Linana A.
Sherif M.
—
Tubello A.
Curmi F.
Vandromme J.
Blinkova A.
Zantedeschi A.
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