Valentin Royer vs Olle Wallin

Iasi · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

FRA

Valentin Royer

#75ATP

1641ELO

1606Clay ELO

$521kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLWLWLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 9 July 2026 · 10:00

clay

SWE

Olle Wallin

#447ATP

1300ELO

1289Clay ELO

24 yrs

Last 10

WWWLWWWWLL

Royer V.

Wallin O.

Valentin Royer faces Olle Wallin in the Iasi round of 16 on clay. Valentin Royer is the paper favourite — ranked #75, a roughly 320-point clay Elo advantage — but Olle Wallin arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 7 on clay to Valentin Royer's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC

Royer V.80%

Wallin O.20%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Royer V. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Valentin Royer 66 games in 14 days, Olle Wallin 150.
Last match: Valentin Royer dropped just 5 games past Maximilian Neuchrist.
Last match: Olle Wallin dropped just 5 games past Samir Hamza Reguig.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Royer V.

7.4

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Wallin O.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

9.0+317 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.0Clay Elo 1289

9.3Overall Elo 1641

ELO gap

0.7Overall Elo 1300

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.25 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

7.67 of last 10 on clay

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Royer V.Stable

Wallin O.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season

Royer V.Wallin O.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

55%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

66%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

49%

39%

Service points won·Slight edge

61%

54%

Return points won·Slight edge

35%

41%

Break points saved·Even

64%

60%

Aces / match·Clear edge

5.4

3.0

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.0

6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Royer V.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Wallin O.

Wallin O.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Royer V.

Serve advantage — Wallin O.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load

Royer V.Wallin O.

Freshness·Clear edge

Royer V.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 66 games (7d) · Wallin O.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

17°COvercast

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Valentin Royer vs Olle Wallin — Iasi Round of 16