Quinn Vandecasteele vs Daniel MilavskyNewport Qualifying Final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#483ATP
1383ELO
1352Grass ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
#310ATP
1349ELO
1355Grass ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Vandecasteele Q.
6-1 3-6 3-6
Milavsky D.
Vandecasteele Q.
6331
Milavsky D.
1662

Daniel Milavsky won the final of the Newport grass tournament, defeating Quinn Vandecasteele 1-6, 6-3, 6-3. Milavsky hit 3 aces and 2 double faults, winning 68% of his first serves and converting 71% of break points. Vandecasteele had 8 aces and 2 double faults, winning 58% of his first serves and converting 40% of break points; he had 4 service breaks to Milavsky's 5.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
59%
76%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.4
8.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.5
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Vandecasteele Q.52%
Milavsky D.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1351
Surface ELO
5.1+4 Grass Elo edge
5.4Overall Elo 1380
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1348
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.25 of last 8 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
67

Vandecasteele Q.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Milavsky D.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw