Ilia Simakin vs Lautaro Midon — Iasi Round of 16
Simakin I.
Ilia Simakin faces Lautaro Midon in the Iasi round of 16 on clay. Lautaro Midon holds the paper edge — a roughly 230-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Midon L. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ilia Simakin 111 games in 14 days, Lautaro Midon 76.
- Last match: Ilia Simakin dropped the opening set before beating Tomas Barrios Vera 4–6 7–5 7–6.
- Last match: Lautaro Midon dropped just 4 games past Radu Mihai Papoe.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSimakin I.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Midon L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.