Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Alexander DonskiIasi Round of 32

Iasi · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#283ATP
1413ELO
1369Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
clay
#528ATP
1428ELO
1369Clay ELO
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWWWW
Gueymard Wayenburg S.
vs
Donski A.

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg faces Alexander Donski in the Iasi round of 32 on clay. Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg holds the paper edge — ranked #283. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:22 UTC
Gueymard Wayenburg S.55%
Donski A.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg comes in with 3 days of rest and 117 games in 14d, vs Alexander Donski's 1 and 18.
  • Surface form: Both 3 of 5 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+0 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Clay Elo 1369
4.8Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1428
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.63 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

26 vs 21 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
63%
51%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
9.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
6.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gueymard Wayenburg S.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Donski A.

Donski A.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Gueymard Wayenburg S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
71
88

Gueymard Wayenburg S.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Donski A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.