Katrina Scott vs Mary StoianaNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#259WTA
1502ELO
1373Grass ELO
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWLWL
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
#130WTA
1654ELO
1597Grass ELO
23 yrs
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWL
Scott K.
vs
Stoiana M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Scott K.13%
Stoiana M.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Stoiana M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Grass Elo 1373
Surface ELO
7.8+224 Grass Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1502
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1654
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Hard → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Scott K.Stable
Stoiana M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Even
57%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Scott K.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Stoiana M.

Stoiana M.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Scott K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Stoiana M.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.