Alicia Herrero Linana vs Lucie Nguyen TanContrexeville Qualifying Final

Contrexeville · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#381WTA
1304ELO
1296Clay ELO
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLWWLL
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 2 · 1st on
#447WTA
1459ELO
1428Clay ELO
23 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWWWLWL
Herrero Linana A.
vs
Nguyen Tan L.

Alicia Herrero Linana faces Lucie Nguyen Tan in the Contrexeville qualifying final on clay. Alicia Herrero Linana holds the paper edge — ranked #381. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Herrero Linana A.15%
Nguyen Tan L.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Nguyen Tan L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Clay Elo 1296
Surface ELO
6.7+132 Clay Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1304
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1459
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
74%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
53%
55%
Return points won·Even
48%
46%
Break points saved·Even
47%
49%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.4
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Herrero Linana A.serving37% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Nguyen Tan L.

Nguyen Tan L.serving37% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Herrero Linana A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.