Luca Potenza vs Pietro Fellin — Trieste Qualifying Final

Trieste · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final

ITA6

Luca Potenza

#438ATP

1342ELO

1297Clay ELO

25 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLWWLLWWW

1 — 2

Sets

Monday, 6 July 2026 · 12:10

clay

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

ITAQ

Pietro Fellin

#446ATP

1322ELO

1245Clay ELO

24 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLLWWLWWW

Potenza L.

3-6 6-1 5-7

Fellin P.

Potenza L.

3651

Fellin P.

6172

Luca Potenza won six games in a row to see off Luca Potenza 6-3 1-6 7-5 in the Trieste qualifying final.

Key context

Set 1, game 2: Luca Potenza saved three break points to hold serve.
Set 1, game 8: Pietro Fellin broke serve.
Pressure points: Luca Potenza converted 5 of 16 break points; Pietro Fellin converted 5 of 17 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Potenza L.

Fellin P.

Break points won

5/16

5/17

Break points saved

12/17

11/16

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Potenza L.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Fellin P.

Fellin P.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Potenza L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Potenza L.Fellin P.

1st serve in·Even

60%

63%

1st serve points won·Even

62%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

46%

Service points won·Even

57%

58%

Return points won·Even

40%

39%

Break points saved·Even

55%

59%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.0

2.6

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.8

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:20 UTC

Potenza L.62%

Fellin P.38%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Potenza L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Potenza L.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Fellin P.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.6+52 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.4Clay Elo 1245

5.3Overall Elo 1342

ELO gap

4.7Overall Elo 1322

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.86 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.76 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.