Francesca Curmi vs Oceane DodinContrexeville Round of 32

Contrexeville · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#268WTA
1579ELO
1567Clay ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#475WTA
1531ELO
1462Clay ELO
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLLLWL
Curmi F.
vs
Dodin O.

Francesca Curmi faces Oceane Dodin in the Contrexeville round of 32 on clay. Francesca Curmi holds the paper edge — ranked #268, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Curmi F.56%
Dodin O.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.3+105 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1462
5.5Overall Elo 1579
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1531
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.13 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Curmi F.Rising
Dodin O.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
78%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
55%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
51%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
48%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.2
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Curmi F.serving51% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Dodin O.

Dodin O.serving37% hold

wins 45% of points on serve vs Curmi F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Dodin O.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on CENTER COURT · not before Not before 5:30 PM · 3 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Boulard L. v Kotliar Y.
  2. 2Hesse A. v Palicova B.
  3. 3Blinkova A. v Andreeva E.
  4. 4Curmi F. v Dodin O.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.