Katherine Sebov vs Cadence BraceNewport Round of 32

Newport · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#244WTA
1418ELO
1369Grass ELO
27 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLLWLL
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
grass
#218WTA
1516ELO
1433Grass ELO
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWLLWWL
Sebov K.
vs
Brace C.

Katherine Sebov faces Cadence Brace in the Newport round of 32 on grass. Cadence Brace holds the paper edge — ranked #218, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Sebov K.30%
Brace C.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Brace C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.2Grass Elo 1369
Surface ELO
5.8+64 Grass Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1418
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1516
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.03 of last 6 on grass
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sebov K.Cooling
Brace C.Surging

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

25 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
79%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
57%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
42%
Service points won·Even
56%
53%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
49%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.7
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sebov K.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Brace C.

Brace C.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Sebov K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
86
98

Sebov K.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Brace C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.