Facundo Mena vs Olukayode Alafia Damina AyeniBogota Round of 32

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#354ATP
1427ELO
1406Clay ELO
33 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWLLWWW
Sets
Monday, 6 July 2026 ·
clay
1324ELO
1230Clay ELO
26 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLLWWLW
Mena F.
vs
Ayeni O.

Facundo Mena faces Olukayode Alafia Damina Ayeni in the Bogota round of 32 on clay. Facundo Mena holds the paper edge — a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Mena F.69%
Ayeni O.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mena F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Both 4 of 9 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+176 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Clay Elo 1230
6.3Overall Elo 1427
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1324
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mena F.Stable
Ayeni O.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.1
7.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mena F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Ayeni O.

Ayeni O.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Mena F.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
8
16
Break points saved·Even
57
57
Break points won·Slight edge
7
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
21
46
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
14
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Mena F.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.