Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo — Newport Qualifying Semi-final

Newport · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
Stefan Kozlov
USA5
Stefan Kozlov
#296ATP
1429ELO
1414Grass ELO
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
USAPR
Aidan Mayo
#616ATP
1380ELO
1396Grass ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
Kozlov S.
7-6 5-7 6-3
Mayo A.
Kozlov S.
7562
Mayo A.
6731

Stefan Kozlov defeated Aidan Mayo in the semifinals of the Newport grass tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 in favor of Kozlov. Kozlov converted 57% of his break points and secured 4 service breaks, compared to Mayo's 3 service breaks and 38% break point conversion rate.

Key context

  • Match story: Stefan Kozlov closed it out in three sets, 7–6 5–7 6–3.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-16M25 Xalapa 1QFhardStefan Kozlov6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
Kozlov S.Mayo A.
1st serve in·Even
58%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.7
4.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.8
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kozlov S.Mayo A.
Clutch Rating·Even
11
12
Break points saved·Dominant
29
68
Break points won·Dominant
35
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
54
7
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Kozlov S.49%
Mayo A.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kozlov S.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Mayo A.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1396
5.6Overall Elo 1429
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1380
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.13 of last 7 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kozlov S.Mayo A.
Freshness·Even
83
79

Kozlov S.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Mayo A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw